This market is about the January 6th case against Trump, in which he is charged with interfering with the election certification in 2021.
The trial was originally scheduled for march 4th, but was then postponed while trump appealed and claimed presidential immunity. Now, the special council is urging the courts to let the case proceed to trial.
When a new trial start date is next announced, this market resolves to the month of that announced date.
If the case is postponed enough, additional months will be added for 2025. If no new trial date is even announced before 2025, this market resolves to "No new trial date announced before 2025".
“No new trial before 2025” feels like an easy hedge against my biden to win 2025 positions. If Biden loses this would be a contributing factor.