still not very likely but a protracted israel-iran war is one of the scenarios that could actually cause this to resolve NO

@SaviorofPlant i hate it here

The most recent month with gas prices in the US above $4.00 / gal was August 2022. WTI futures in July and August were in the $90 - $100 / barrel range, so I would expect March needs to average around $95/barrel in order to push gas prices that high (the price closed Friday at $91).

If prices went back below $90 for a significant part of the month (for example, if the current conflict ended and the Strait of Hormuz reopened), March average gas prices would likely be below $4.00/gal.

We're now 12 days into March and I would estimate the average price at something like $3.40. $110 oil might be needed for the second half of the month for March to cause a yes resolution, assuming the average is calculated the way I think it is

@SaviorofPlant Isn't it rolling?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen That might be the case, I have no idea honestly

@SaviorofPlant It looks like it's just the average of these weekly values:

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=w

3/02 was 3.148 and 3/09 was 3.633, so this month actually happens to have five weekly values. For the March average to be over 4.00, the remaining three dates (3/16, 3/23, 3/30) need to average 4.41.

@SaviorofPlant Actually, I guess it's not clear from the resolution criteria that this market is even about the monthly value! @ManifoldPolitics Does this resolve YES if a weekly value on the linked page in the description is over $4.00/gal?

@SaviorofPlant It says "Resolves based on the national monthly average gas price"

Price shock and recession seem likely to suppress oil prices indefinitely, selling out of my NO position. A little surprised I wasn't late to the party

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Drill baby Drill... so that gas can overcharge everyone at the same time instead of being limited by supply

Based on this market, I created this conditional market which separates out close elections so that the market becomes useful in determining causation rather than just correlation.