Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if, before January 3, 2031, the Senate changes its rules or sets a precedent so that ordinary legislation (or a whole category of it, such as voting-rights bills) can pass with a simple majority instead of needing 60 votes for cloture. Existing exceptions (nominations, budget reconciliation) and one-off waivers for a single bill do not count. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.