Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice). If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if Coinbase's BTC-USD price at 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2031 (the daily close for December 31, 2030) is above $250,000. Resolves NO otherwise.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks the 2028 presidential winner changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.