General Manifold US Politics Discussion Thread and Bounty Board

#US Politics #Politics #Manifold Politics

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This is a general discussion thread for anything related to US Politics and the Manifold Politics project.

Our main election dashboard can be found in the US Elections sidebar and at https://manifold.markets/elections. It currently features Manifold's predictions for the the major party nominees as well as the result of the presidential election overall and in each state. We'll soon be adding Senate Races, Governor's Races, and more!

If you have political markets you've created and want to advertise, suggestions for Manifold Politics, or just thoughts on current political events you can leave them in a comment below. Good comments may be eligible for a bounty!

Or if you don't have anything to say right now, you can just follow this thread for updates on political happenings. You can also follow the Manifold Politics Discord Thread, but I think it would be nice to get more discussion on the site itself.

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On iOS, using Manifold Politics dashboard, tapping a Yes/No button on any other state than Georgia fails to open the betting overlay widget, and instead takes me back to Georgia - where I may vote Yes/No on any of the available options.

Would be really cool for elections in other powerful nations to be featured similarly in the future

What are people's thoughts on the current state of the war in Ukraine? What needs to happen for Ukraine to start gaining more ground?

Also new is the Political Polling Dashboard, featuring markets like this:

Political enthusiasts know that the RCP simple, unweighted polling average is often less accurate than more sophisticated averages like 538. But I think the fact that RCP doesn't do any adjustments of their polls makes it well suited for a prediction market.

I think predicting the RCP average is also important because it gets a lot of attention across the internet and Biden re-taking the lead could have a significant impact on the narrative of the race and people's perceptions of his candidacy, even if there's not that much difference between being up by 1% and down by 1%.

If people want to make more markets on polling averages I might include them in the dashboard, or if you post your ideas here I or someone else might make them for you.

The dashboard for the 2024 Governor's races can be found here, and now has individual markets for which party will win each state. The two tossup races are New Hampshire and North Carolina, which have their own multiple choice markets with additional information on the candidates: