What daily community game will we add to our website?
We are looking to experiment with adding a fun game that utilising prediction markets. What game are we most likely to add?
N.C. Young answered
Chess
18%
Martin Randall answered
Mystery / detective / whodunnit
18%
Sjlver answered
Battleships
10%
Undox answered
Betting on a survey
8%
Daniel Reeves answered
The board game Wavelength
7%
Manifold Markets answered
Mana & Dragons
7%
Daniel Reeves answered
Wits & Wagers
6%
Martin Randall answered
Trivia / Pub quiz
4%
Kieron George answered
PredictionMarkets play Pokemon
4%
comsynthus answered
Minesweeper
4%
Sjlver answered
Truth or dare?
3%
N.C. Young answered
Zendo
2%
Manifold Markets answered
None
2%
SirSalty answered
Manifold writes a Haiku
1.7%
nmehndir answered
Manifold plays Wordle (but only the first guess)
0.2%
N.C. Young answered18 days ago
Chess
18%
Austin bought M$1017 days ago
I like Chess since it's simple, widely known, and some Manifolk are quite good at it (I believe @mqp is rated 2100+)
It could be pretty simple to do eg "If we play Qc3, will we win this game?" for a few candidate moves each round, using Futarchy to decide what to play next against an AI
Austin bought M$2017 days ago
Marshall Polaris bought M$517 days ago
I don't know if I think this is a "good idea" but I admit that I would be snookered into participating anyway.
I learned some lessons from https://manifold.markets/Undox/communal-chess-game-will-white-win
Lessons learned: 1. It is probably good to have some code tracking the official board position, since people may have differing ideas about what that is. 2. I made it initially one move total per person, but then the game grinds to a halt, I then made it unlimited moves per person, but 2 consecutive moves not allows. This was better but it allowed two people to collude to easily. So I would say you can only make a move if the last 2 moves are not yours.
SneakySly bought M$1014 days ago
@NcyRocks Chess is also the highest status game Manifold could add. Good for word of mouth or marketing stuff "they can even use markets to play Chess."
Martin Randall answered17 days ago
Mystery / detective / whodunnit
18%
Martin Randall bought M$1017 days ago
Trying to figure out the murderer is a common way to read detective novels and the like. Could work with a webcomic, fanfic, webseries, etc.
Every day the author reveals a new story segment, adds a new market, and maybe resolves a market or two. Use a tag or author link to make it easy to see all markets for the story.
This was done once at least on Discord, watching Poirot I believe.
Daniel Reeves is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 12 days ago
@MartinRandall See also Robin Hanson's board game, _Murder She Bet_!
Sjlver answered19 days ago
Battleships
10%
Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago
Guess where the ships are, earn Mana for betting on the right coordinates.
D&D will require so many explanations, but every child knows Battleships :)
Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago
Here's how this could work:
1. The system generates a secret game board.
2. (for the geeks:) The system publishes `commitment = hash(nonce + gameboard)`
3. Conceptually, a game board is equivalent to 81 markets of the form "Is there a ship at coordinate A1" ... "Is there a ship at coordinate I9". In practice, the UI will probably represent it as one single game.
4. Players bet on these markets.
5. Every hour (or day, or ...) the market with the highest volume gets resolved. This is equivalent to calling a "shot" in the game.
6. Players can continue to place more bets on the other markets. For example, if part of a ship was revealed, they might bet on adjacent positions.
7. (for the geeks:) Once all markets are resolved, the system publishes the `nonce`, so that everyone can verify that it didn't cheat or favor some player.
For info about the original game, refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battleship_(game)
Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago
Actually, a move is revealed every 15 minutes, so that the game finishes in about 20 hours.
If the system then starts the next game immediately, start times will cycle nicely through all time zones, giving everyone around the globe the same conditions, and the chance to play the early game or endgame.
I think this idea is a lot better than the current options because it uses prediction markets for forecasting instead of voting.
However, this would only work if the system places the ships using a non-random strategy. If the ships are randomly placed, this would just be gambling.
JiSK bought M$1018 days ago
Even if placement is random, conditional probabilities will move nonrandomly when a guess is resolved. Eventually the community will converge on a correct strategy and the room for skill will disappear, but that could take a long while.
Sjlver bought M$518 days ago
There is plenty of strategy here. As @JiSK mentioned, conditional probabilities evolve over time. Besides that, it is worth betting on coordinates that few other people bet on, since you will get more shares per Mana this way.
SirSalty is betting Mana & Dragons 18 days ago
I could see this being a fun one-time thing but what we are really after is some sort of game that will draw users to our website daily for ~5mins (think wordle).
Another concern I have over this proposition is having 81 markets created will be quite daunting for most users to interact with.
Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 17 days ago
5x5 battleships?
Undox answered17 days ago
Betting on a survey
8%
Undox bought M$1017 days ago
The idea here is you release a survey to registered users, and then people bet on the outcome. Could be either resolve PROB based on proportions of votes, or resolve to the more popular choice.
The survey could be categorical (which outcome will happen) or linear (what probability would you assign to X)
This might make long term outcome betting more fun as you can bet on what people thing the probability is, and get a sooner resolution (although wrong-er... admittedly).
Daniel Reeves answered17 days ago
The board game Wavelength
7%
Manifold Markets answered19 days ago
Mana & Dragons
7%
Manifold Markets bought M$1019 days ago
Essentially D&D where the Manifold community controls one character and help it navigate through a story with a daily action to decide with free response markets each day. David and Ian worked on this concept for the hackathon we hosted yesterday and it was received well!
Interesting idea, but imo it'd be much better to run a game that revolves around the prediction part of prediction markets.
> daily action to decide with free response markets each day
Isn't this just a poll?
nmehndir is betting Manifold p...rst guess) 18 days ago
Maybe free-response markets could be used to predict the effects of certain actions (e.g. "Which action will yield the most gold?") instead of deciding actions?
SirSalty is betting Mana & Dragons 18 days ago
I'm not entirely convinced having some markets that are more adjacent to polls is necessarily something to avoid, especially if it is acknowledge it is a game. That being said we would have to be careful to avoid a situation where users bandwagon on the top response as all they care about is making a small % of M$ as opposed to caring about the game. We were thinking of creating a system where the top 3 responses are taken and one is chosen at random weighted to their probabilities.
If we did want to make it very "prediction centric" we could make it so that the story is pre-written and users have to guess what event will happen or how the character will act, but I think this is less compelling than users actually impacting the story.
Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 17 days ago
I'd be reticent about playing any game with "last whale" markets, since I'd expect to lose mana to the last whale on average.
Decision markets could work. "Conditional on casting lightning bolt, will the princess rescue the dragon?"
Manifold Markets is betting None 17 days ago
Oh we will cap it to something like M$100 per user per market for this game, meant to include that in the original post
Daniel Reeves answered17 days ago
Wits & Wagers
6%
Martin Randall answered18 days ago
Trivia / Pub quiz
4%
Martin Randall bought M$1018 days ago
Just create a free response market and resolve to the correct answer after since reasonable delay. Earlier responders get a higher payout.
Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 13 days ago
Example: guess the prompt from the computer generated image.
Kieron George answered11 days ago
PredictionMarkets play Pokemon
4%
Kieron George bought M$1011 days ago
If Twitch can do it, what's stopping Manifold
comsynthus answered14 days ago
Minesweeper
4%
comsynthus bought M$1014 days ago
A big multiple-choice market where every square is an option. Every once in a while, the square with the highest bet gets revealed. If it's safe, the people who bet for it get a small payout. If it's a mine, everyone else who participated gets the payout instead and the game ends.
Sjlver answered19 days ago
Truth or dare?
3%
Ian bought M$1018 days ago
I dare you!
N.C. Young answered18 days ago
Zendo
2%
Manifold Markets answered19 days ago
None
2%
SirSalty answered19 days ago
Manifold writes a Haiku
1.7%
SirSalty bought M$1019 days ago
Each day a free response market is created to choose what word comes next in the haiku
nmehndir answered18 days ago
Manifold plays Wordle (but only the first guess)
0.2%
nmehndir bought M$118 days ago
Free-response market where each option is a 5-letter word. Bettors put M$ on the word that they think will be the best 1st guess for the following day's Wordle.
I'm not sure what scoring system would be best. Something like:
+2 for green (right letter, right place)
+1 for yellow (right letter, wrong place)
+0 for red (wrong letter)
would probably work.
Potential alternatives to that scoring system:
* market where red is penalized
* market where yellow and red are both penalized
Another possible version of this game could look like people betting on the worst possible guess, with something like:
+4 for green
+2 for yellow
0 for red
where the goal is to get the lowest score possible.
General Comments