What daily community game will we add to our website?
May 15
M$760 bet
We are looking to experiment with adding a fun game that utilising prediction markets. What game are we most likely to add?
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
Chess
18%
MartinRandall
Mystery / detective / whodunnit
18%
Sjlver
Sjlver answered
Battleships
10%
Undox
Undox answered
Betting on a survey
8%
dreev
Daniel Reeves answered
The board game Wavelength
7%
ManifoldMarkets
Mana & Dragons
7%
dreev
Daniel Reeves answered
Wits & Wagers
6%
MartinRandall
Trivia / Pub quiz
4%
KieronGeorge
Kieron George answered
PredictionMarkets play Pokemon
4%
comsynthus
comsynthus answered
Minesweeper
4%
Sjlver
Sjlver answered
Truth or dare?
3%
NcyRocks
N.C. Young answered
Zendo
2%
ManifoldMarkets
None
2%
DavidChee
SirSalty answered
Manifold writes a Haiku
1.7%
nmehndir
nmehndir answered
Manifold plays Wordle (but only the first guess)
0.2%
NcyRocks
Chess
18%
Austin

Austin bought M$1017 days ago

I like Chess since it's simple, widely known, and some Manifolk are quite good at it (I believe @mqp is rated 2100+) It could be pretty simple to do eg "If we play Qc3, will we win this game?" for a few candidate moves each round, using Futarchy to decide what to play next against an AI
mqp

Marshall Polaris bought M$517 days ago

I don't know if I think this is a "good idea" but I admit that I would be snookered into participating anyway.
Undox

Undox 17 days ago

I learned some lessons from https://manifold.markets/Undox/communal-chess-game-will-white-win Lessons learned: 1. It is probably good to have some code tracking the official board position, since people may have differing ideas about what that is. 2. I made it initially one move total per person, but then the game grinds to a halt, I then made it unlimited moves per person, but 2 consecutive moves not allows. This was better but it allowed two people to collude to easily. So I would say you can only make a move if the last 2 moves are not yours.
SneakySly

SneakySly bought M$1014 days ago

@NcyRocks Chess is also the highest status game Manifold could add. Good for word of mouth or marketing stuff "they can even use markets to play Chess."
MartinRandall
Mystery / detective / whodunnit
18%
MartinRandall

Martin Randall bought M$1017 days ago

Trying to figure out the murderer is a common way to read detective novels and the like. Could work with a webcomic, fanfic, webseries, etc. Every day the author reveals a new story segment, adds a new market, and maybe resolves a market or two. Use a tag or author link to make it easy to see all markets for the story.
Undox

Undox 17 days ago

This was done once at least on Discord, watching Poirot I believe.
dreev

Daniel Reeves is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 12 days ago

@MartinRandall See also Robin Hanson's board game, _Murder She Bet_!
Sjlver
Battleships
10%
Sjlver

Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago

Guess where the ships are, earn Mana for betting on the right coordinates. D&D will require so many explanations, but every child knows Battleships :)
Sjlver

Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago

Here's how this could work: 1. The system generates a secret game board. 2. (for the geeks:) The system publishes `commitment = hash(nonce + gameboard)` 3. Conceptually, a game board is equivalent to 81 markets of the form "Is there a ship at coordinate A1" ... "Is there a ship at coordinate I9". In practice, the UI will probably represent it as one single game. 4. Players bet on these markets. 5. Every hour (or day, or ...) the market with the highest volume gets resolved. This is equivalent to calling a "shot" in the game. 6. Players can continue to place more bets on the other markets. For example, if part of a ship was revealed, they might bet on adjacent positions. 7. (for the geeks:) Once all markets are resolved, the system publishes the `nonce`, so that everyone can verify that it didn't cheat or favor some player. For info about the original game, refer to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battleship_(game)
Sjlver

Sjlver bought M$1019 days ago

Actually, a move is revealed every 15 minutes, so that the game finishes in about 20 hours. If the system then starts the next game immediately, start times will cycle nicely through all time zones, giving everyone around the globe the same conditions, and the chance to play the early game or endgame.
nmehndir

nmehndir 18 days ago

I think this idea is a lot better than the current options because it uses prediction markets for forecasting instead of voting. However, this would only work if the system places the ships using a non-random strategy. If the ships are randomly placed, this would just be gambling.
JiSK

JiSK bought M$1018 days ago

Even if placement is random, conditional probabilities will move nonrandomly when a guess is resolved. Eventually the community will converge on a correct strategy and the room for skill will disappear, but that could take a long while.
Sjlver

Sjlver bought M$518 days ago

There is plenty of strategy here. As @JiSK mentioned, conditional probabilities evolve over time. Besides that, it is worth betting on coordinates that few other people bet on, since you will get more shares per Mana this way.
DavidChee

SirSalty is betting Mana & Dragons 18 days ago

I could see this being a fun one-time thing but what we are really after is some sort of game that will draw users to our website daily for ~5mins (think wordle). Another concern I have over this proposition is having 81 markets created will be quite daunting for most users to interact with.
MartinRandall

Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 17 days ago

5x5 battleships?
Undox
Betting on a survey
8%
Undox

Undox bought M$1017 days ago

The idea here is you release a survey to registered users, and then people bet on the outcome. Could be either resolve PROB based on proportions of votes, or resolve to the more popular choice. The survey could be categorical (which outcome will happen) or linear (what probability would you assign to X) This might make long term outcome betting more fun as you can bet on what people thing the probability is, and get a sooner resolution (although wrong-er... admittedly).
dreev
The board game Wavelength
7%
ManifoldMarkets
Mana & Dragons
7%
ManifoldMarkets

Manifold Markets bought M$1019 days ago

Essentially D&D where the Manifold community controls one character and help it navigate through a story with a daily action to decide with free response markets each day. David and Ian worked on this concept for the hackathon we hosted yesterday and it was received well!
nmehndir

nmehndir 18 days ago

Interesting idea, but imo it'd be much better to run a game that revolves around the prediction part of prediction markets. > daily action to decide with free response markets each day Isn't this just a poll?
nmehndir

nmehndir is betting Manifold p...rst guess) 18 days ago

Maybe free-response markets could be used to predict the effects of certain actions (e.g. "Which action will yield the most gold?") instead of deciding actions?
DavidChee

SirSalty is betting Mana & Dragons 18 days ago

I'm not entirely convinced having some markets that are more adjacent to polls is necessarily something to avoid, especially if it is acknowledge it is a game. That being said we would have to be careful to avoid a situation where users bandwagon on the top response as all they care about is making a small % of M$ as opposed to caring about the game. We were thinking of creating a system where the top 3 responses are taken and one is chosen at random weighted to their probabilities. If we did want to make it very "prediction centric" we could make it so that the story is pre-written and users have to guess what event will happen or how the character will act, but I think this is less compelling than users actually impacting the story.
MartinRandall

Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 17 days ago

I'd be reticent about playing any game with "last whale" markets, since I'd expect to lose mana to the last whale on average. Decision markets could work. "Conditional on casting lightning bolt, will the princess rescue the dragon?"
ManifoldMarkets

Manifold Markets is betting None 17 days ago

Oh we will cap it to something like M$100 per user per market for this game, meant to include that in the original post
dreev
Wits & Wagers
6%
MartinRandall
Trivia / Pub quiz
4%
MartinRandall

Martin Randall bought M$1018 days ago

Just create a free response market and resolve to the correct answer after since reasonable delay. Earlier responders get a higher payout.
MartinRandall

Martin Randall is betting Trivia / Pub quiz 13 days ago

Example: guess the prompt from the computer generated image.
KieronGeorge
PredictionMarkets play Pokemon
4%
KieronGeorge

Kieron George bought M$1011 days ago

If Twitch can do it, what's stopping Manifold
comsynthus
Minesweeper
4%
comsynthus

comsynthus bought M$1014 days ago

A big multiple-choice market where every square is an option. Every once in a while, the square with the highest bet gets revealed. If it's safe, the people who bet for it get a small payout. If it's a mine, everyone else who participated gets the payout instead and the game ends.
Sjlver
Truth or dare?
3%
ian

Ian bought M$1018 days ago

I dare you!
NcyRocks
Zendo
2%
ManifoldMarkets
None
2%
DavidChee
Manifold writes a Haiku
1.7%
DavidChee

SirSalty bought M$1019 days ago

Each day a free response market is created to choose what word comes next in the haiku
nmehndir
Manifold plays Wordle (but only the first guess)
0.2%
nmehndir

nmehndir bought M$118 days ago

Free-response market where each option is a 5-letter word. Bettors put M$ on the word that they think will be the best 1st guess for the following day's Wordle. I'm not sure what scoring system would be best. Something like: +2 for green (right letter, right place) +1 for yellow (right letter, wrong place) +0 for red (wrong letter) would probably work. Potential alternatives to that scoring system: * market where red is penalized * market where yellow and red are both penalized Another possible version of this game could look like people betting on the worst possible guess, with something like: +4 for green +2 for yellow 0 for red where the goal is to get the lowest score possible.
General Comments