What daily community game will we add to our website?
Basic
42
Ṁ1694resolved Oct 12
100%21%Other
0.8%Other
1.6%
Mana & Dragons
0.3%
Manifold writes a Haiku
0.5%
Truth or dare?
1.9%
Battleships
0.0%
Manifold plays pokemon
0.0%
Manifold plays Wordle (but only the first guess)
5%
Chess
0.4%
Zendo
0.7%
Trivia / Pub quiz
5%
Mystery / detective / whodunnit
1.5%
Betting on a survey
1.2%
The board game Wavelength
1.0%
Wits & Wagers
0.0%
Murder She Bet https://murdershebet.com/
0.6%
Minesweeper
0.7%
PredictionMarkets play Pokemon
57%
Leagues
We are looking to experiment with adding a fun game that utilising prediction markets. What game are we most likely to add?
Close date updated to 2023-05-14 10:59 pm
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@ManifoldMarkets more D&D = more better. Who runs the game, in this idea? Is it a manifold staff member?
@NcyRocks Chess is also the highest status game Manifold could add. Good for word of mouth or marketing stuff "they can even use markets to play Chess."
The idea here is you release a survey to registered users, and then people bet on the outcome. Could be either resolve PROB based on proportions of votes, or resolve to the more popular choice.
The survey could be categorical (which outcome will happen) or linear (what probability would you assign to X)
This might make long term outcome betting more fun as you can bet on what people thing the probability is, and get a sooner resolution (although wrong-er... admittedly).
I learned some lessons from https://manifold.markets/Undox/communal-chess-game-will-white-win
Lessons learned: 1. It is probably good to have some code tracking the official board position, since people may have differing ideas about what that is. 2. I made it initially one move total per person, but then the game grinds to a halt, I then made it unlimited moves per person, but 2 consecutive moves not allows. This was better but it allowed two people to collude to easily. So I would say you can only make a move if the last 2 moves are not yours.
I like Chess since it's simple, widely known, and some Manifolk are quite good at it (I believe @mqp is rated 2100+)
It could be pretty simple to do eg "If we play Qc3, will we win this game?" for a few candidate moves each round, using Futarchy to decide what to play next against an AI
Trying to figure out the murderer is a common way to read detective novels and the like. Could work with a webcomic, fanfic, webseries, etc.
Every day the author reveals a new story segment, adds a new market, and maybe resolves a market or two. Use a tag or author link to make it easy to see all markets for the story.
I'm not entirely convinced having some markets that are more adjacent to polls is necessarily something to avoid, especially if it is acknowledge it is a game. That being said we would have to be careful to avoid a situation where users bandwagon on the top response as all they care about is making a small % of M$ as opposed to caring about the game. We were thinking of creating a system where the top 3 responses are taken and one is chosen at random weighted to their probabilities.
If we did want to make it very "prediction centric" we could make it so that the story is pre-written and users have to guess what event will happen or how the character will act, but I think this is less compelling than users actually impacting the story.
There is plenty of strategy here. As @JiSK mentioned, conditional probabilities evolve over time. Besides that, it is worth betting on coordinates that few other people bet on, since you will get more shares per Mana this way.
Free-response market where each option is a 5-letter word. Bettors put M$ on the word that they think will be the best 1st guess for the following day's Wordle.
I'm not sure what scoring system would be best. Something like:
+2 for green (right letter, right place)
+1 for yellow (right letter, wrong place)
+0 for red (wrong letter)
would probably work.
Potential alternatives to that scoring system:
* market where red is penalized
* market where yellow and red are both penalized
Another possible version of this game could look like people betting on the worst possible guess, with something like:
+4 for green
+2 for yellow
0 for red
where the goal is to get the lowest score possible.