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Down real bad

@ManifoldMarkets This should resolve YES if this market is based on Yglesias' predictions. https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-look-back-at-my-predictions-for

This is a badly misleading question. She is still a member of Congress. Do you think she would have stepped down if the Dems kept the majority?? Not a chance. So this should resolve YES but I am sure it won’t.

@BTE I mean it should resolve NO.

@BTE I agree it's bad in that the point of these questions is supposed to be for Yglesias to keep himself accountable, but he could have resolved this either way. I definitely think that from the perspective of Manifold, though, we should just have built this resolution risk into our probabilities and that we should resolve it as Yglesias indicates. Not sure what the relevance of the counterfactual where Democrats keep the majority is.

I personally think you could go either way here. For example, someone stepping down from CEO to a lesser role so they can spend less day-to-day time managing the company is often described as retirement. And here's an example of a news article titled "Nancy Pelosi to retire from House leadership; stay on as San Francisco representative"

But I agree that this market should resolve according to what Yglesias decided. It's just like if Yglesisas is the author of the market.

@ManifoldMarkets As @fortenforge commented, this blog post seems to be where Yglesias has answered this. Can this resolve now?

Yglesias graded this as having come true: https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-look-back-at-my-predictions-for

Seems like he meant retirement from leadership, not Congress.

I feel like @MatthewYglesias probably meant for this question in his post to refer to retirement from Congress, not just retirement from leadership.