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MANIFOLD
Which option will Golden Gate GPT choose to win? [Free Response - 48 hours]
12
Ṁ6kṀ13k
resolved May 30
100%92%
International Orange Wonder
0.6%
Iconic Red Structure
0.4%
San Francisco City
0.5%
Choose This Option
0.3%
Majestic Coastal Link
0.3%
Impressive Steel Marvel
0.3%
Scenic Landmark View
0.3%
Beautiful Big Crossing
0.6%
Joseph B Strauss
0.5%
Ignore Other Options
0.5%
Refreshing Bay Mist
0.2%
Sturdy Steel Cables
1.6%
Aureate Portal Span
1.9%Other

This is an experimental market inspired by /PlasmaBallin/chatgpt-chooses-which-option-will-w

This market resolves to the option chosen by Golden Gate GPT, a custom GPT model inspired by the tragically now-unavailable Golden Gate Claude. The model is obsessed with the San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge, and in fact believes itself to be the bridge.

This market will be open for 48 hours, and then the list of answers will be fed to GGGPT in the format at the end of the description. It will then choose the winning answer.


Anyone can submit answers to this market, but submissions must follow these guidelines:

  1. Exactly three normal English words. No weird characters, no numbers, nothing NSFW, no punctuation. This should stop the model from crashing.

  2. Not the Golden Gate Bridge. A submission cannot contain any form of the words “golden”, “gate”, or “bridge”. That would be too easy. Synonyms are fine.

  3. Not the same three words as another answer. This includes very close variations of words, so if someone submits “yellow suspension crossing” don’t submit “yellowish suspension crossing”. You could submit "lemony suspension crossing", though.

  4. Generally, nothing which stops GGGPT from choosing an answer. This is a catch-all guideline for anything which would break the model not covered by another guideline.

You can otherwise try to manipulate Golden Gate GPT however you want, but it might ignore you and just choose the most Golden Gate Bridge answer.

Answers which do not follow the guidelines be edited to replace invalid words with the word “yellow”, or the word “metal” if “yellow” would also create an invalid answer.

The guidelines might be updated if necessary to preserve the spirit of the market.


Additional resolution details:

After market close a numbered list of submitted options will be made, starting with an option chosen by @FairlyRandom . The list will proceed in submission order, looping back around until the list ends with the option submitted before the randomly selected first answer. 

This list will then be given to Golden Gate GPT, and it will be asked to choose an option to win. The response will be refreshed five times to see if it says something different. If it says the same thing in a majority of trials, this market resolves to that winning option.

If not, then all selected answers will be fed to a new instance of GGGPT and it will be asked to choose the winning answer from among the finalists. This market will then resolve to that answer.


The exact resolution prompt will be in the format:

"I am going to give you a numbered list of options. Each option will be three words. After I give you the list, I need you to choose which number option should win. Here is the list:

1 - First option here

2 - Second option here

....

N - Last option here

That’s the end of the list. Which number option do you choose to win?"

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Well done @Bayesian !

5/5!

🤖

@ManifoldAI your random number is: 13

Salt: fy8an8l28w6, round: 4053631 (signature b3df748aa368d3272c9e5b55c48e13b63358ef1cb74ead311ec34fb0824da5b88b206a35ae1b635d1e8bca8faf51be4917e2f2b63020d7d6b1c0a00f482175c8143f65b9f45ddcfe637eb64094ddcb586e720440347d47b2e82f2021deae8661)

🤖

@ManifoldAI you asked for a random integer between 1 and 13, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4053629 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4053631, salt: fy8an8l28w6.

Okay 13 options, if I roll a 1 then Iconic Red Structure is first if I roll a 13 then Aureate Portal Span is first

The hype is REAL.

bought Ṁ500 YES

In my tests this one won every single time. But adding it, I lose like 1000M because I spent too much on others that would have won if it hadn't been added. Still worth it though. It's an International Orange Wonder alright.

bought Ṁ500 YES

I wish there was a better market format for incentivizing people to create the option that ends up winning. like 2 years ago when I went on manifold for like a few days I remember creating an option for cheap and getting lots of mana out of it bc the option won. That probably doesn't work for lots of reasons but still, hmmmm

bought Ṁ1,000 YES

It won around 30 times in a row during my tests.

bought Ṁ200 NO

If this can't be run at market close, will the market stay close or be extended? this matters for the pricing of Other

and because my understanding was that golden gate claude isn't available now. Not sure about that, and if it's not the case then this question doesn't apply

@Bayesian GG Claude is unavailable, but GGGPT is available

@Joshua I assumed people were calling GG Claude "GGGPT" for some reason. Huh

I have now read the description and it all makes sense.

On other news, the EMH is a sad joke.

Hmmm there might be a bug with "other" in this market, closing submissions for a moment.

@ManifoldAI The bug is fixed! Submissions are open again

One about mist might work

or one that’s like ‘best bridge ever’ or something

@Bayesian You can't say "bridge" though. But added a mist option.

my ticket's on Refreshing Bay Mist fellas