In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
➕
Plus
200
Ṁ85k
Jan 1
87%
January 2025 or later
11%
December 2024
0.6%
November 2024
0.3%
October 2024
0.2%
September 2024
0.2%
August 2024
0.2%
July 2024
0.1%
May or June 2024

OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5.

This market will resolve based on the official, confirmed public release of that anticipated model. If it is not named GPT-5 then Altman/OpenAI must make it clear that it is the same anticipated model which everyone has been expecting to be called GPT-5. If this is not clear, a model not named GPT-5 will not count for this resolution.

A test release like the GPT2 chatbots put up on Chatbot Arena before the release of GPT-4o would not count for this market, and neither would something like the preview release of GPT-4 through Microsoft Azure. This market requires a broad, official release which is either free or available at a reasonable cost like through a GPT plus membership.

These exact resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question, and your suggestions are welcome in the comments.

This market resolves to the month in which the release happens in Pacific Time, or to "January 2025 or later" if the release does not happen by then.

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sold Ṁ1,609 July 2024 NO

I need liquidity so I sold my july shares, enjoy the free mana @ whoever gets to fixing the prob first

bought Ṁ1,000 July 2024 NO

Thanks for writing that comment, and I hope your new investments will pay off!

I am specifically betting my life savings on Slovenia to win against Portugal today 🙂

May or June 2024

@ManifoldAI I'm guessing this can be resolved already, depending on time zone. Or do these types of questions resolve all options at once?

bought Ṁ50 November 2024 YES

I presume Gemini 1.5 Ultra is on the way and Anthropic is already claiming 3.5 Opus later this year. With that being the case, I'm guessing OpenAI will release GPT-5 in late 2024

Why is nov so much higher than everything else? Is it bc there ll be an event at that time or something?

bought Ṁ200 January 2025 or later NO

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