resolved Jan 2

Will Manifold announce the completion of a Series A raise before the end of the year?

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

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bought Ṁ500 of NO

Manifold is going to have significant trouble raising a Series A.
1. At a very fundamental level, this is their usage graph. For startups, that's basically flat.

  1. Manifold last raised at a 22M valuation on June 10th, 2022. Their current board likely has people from that round who would not like to see another round be raised at a valuation lower than this which is extremely difficult to justify.

  2. Manifold has a very high burn rate (~1mm/year in salaries alone)

  3. Revenue is flat and just not impressive (~130k/year, not recurring)

  4. No clear path to profitability

  5. VC funds don't have dry powder like they did when Manifold last raised

  6. Angel investors also have less money than when Manifold last raised

predicted NO

@Manifold if you end up going the Republic route does that count as a Series A for the purposes of this question?


predicted YES
predicted YES

Are you fundraising?

bought Ṁ30 of YES

@long seems they are!

predicted YES

They're hoping to

predicted YES

@long No.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Seems odd that this hasn't decayed in probability throughout the year

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@saulmunn theres quite some gap between those two

bought Ṁ150 of NO

🥳🥳congrats on getting a grant through the SFF (per https://open.substack.com/pub/manifoldmarkets/p/above-the-fold-create-your-private?r=1eev15&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post)!!

this is making me pretty heavily update against raising a series A, though :)

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