Will we decide that moving to SF was a good idea?
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Jan 1
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chance

In a poll of all Manifold FTE given in Dec 2023, will 50% or more of the respondants agree with the statement "moving our operations from 'fully remote' to 'centralized in SF' was a good idea?


This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

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@Manifold Was it? Resolve?

Please add San Francisco hashtag!

You're 'centralized in SF', but can individual FTE work remotely if they want?

predicts YES

@LukeHanks Yes, but working out of the office is encouraged, and may not be optional for new hires.

survivorship bias - doesn't count people who leave / would have joined but don't

there probably isn't actually a good operationalization though ...

@Sinclair I agree with this one.

I believe that Manifold is seriously harming itself by significantly shrinking the talent pool. I've never found that in-person employees perform better in any way than remote employees, and they cost significantly more to employ due to office furniture and similar expenses. Manifold's managers are out of touch with the needs of their employees, as many employees view mandatory office work as patronizing and not trusting of them.

But I'm not bidding on this market because the Manifold will never know this, as there is no control to this "experiment." They will limit themselves to expensive employees who are willing to move to San Francisco, when they could have hired three employees of equal or better value who work elsewhere.