Nuno's forecasting newsletter does a great job of breaking down what happened and providing some context: https://forecasting.substack.com/p/forecasting-newsletter-july-2022

PredictiIt's CEO is planning to give a talk on SSG's podcast in a few hours which could be revealing? https://twitter.com/keendawg/status/1556657200256487424

Resolution criteria

It is hard to say what evidence will be substantial enough for this market to resolve to YES. We might resolve it to a partial % if evidence comes out that is "substantial" but doesn't completely prove it beyond doubt.

As described in Nuno's newsletter a Freedom of Information request has been filed so a resolution might be based largely based on the outcome of that.