Will any FTE leave?
63
316
Ṁ13KṀ1.3K
Jan 1
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Amount
Ṁ0
Ṁ50
Ṁ100
Payout if YES
Ṁ83 +737.9%
New probability
12%
Will any full time employees (excluding founders) part ways with Manifold before the end of the year? This includes current FTE as well as any new hires made in 2023.
This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.
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Pip Fowerakerbought Ṁ55 of YES
Not that I want anyone to leave, of course, but it's a little undersold when there's still a quarter left in the year IMO
Elliot Daviesbought Ṁ25 of YES
I'm stunned by how low this is - based on prior experience young smart people move around a lot. I'd be surprised if this hasn't resolved positive by the summer
Ian Philipspredicts NO
I was surprised by how high this market is trading so I made the following: /ian/given-a-fte-employee-leaves-manifol
Matt C. Wilsonbought Ṁ10 of NO
@ian Should this go into https://manifold.markets/group/manifolds-2023-predictions?
Brendan Finanpredicts YES
Turnover at startups is pretty high, which I think is the assumption most people are using as a baseline
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