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MANIFOLD
Will 2023's most popular market be resolved mostly based on someone’s opinion?
44
Ṁ910Ṁ4.3k
resolved Jan 16
Resolved
NO

"Popular" here refers to "most unique traders".

Question courtesy of @ian, whose opinion we're using to resolve "whether the market is based on someone's opinion".

This market is part of Manifold's 2023 Predictions, a group of forecasts about what's in store for Manifold this year. Markets will be resolved by the Manifold core team.

Market context
Manifold's 2023 Predictions
New Year's Resolutions 2024
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Hard to imagine a market like that beating LK-99's >5K traders.

what if most popular market is non-resolving like the stonks?

@Sinclair lol that does feel a lot like an opinion but they don’t resolve…

@ian We should probably make a separate market for that

@Sinclair that would resolve this market NO, right? A market can't resolve based on someone's opinion if it doesn't resolve.

The intent here is to distinguish the market from an event type market. I imagine this as a ‘will I think this’ or other opinion-based market.