
Released = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does not count.
New model = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.
Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.
Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.
*OpenAI (other) refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.
**Anthropic flagship language model refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.
***Anthropic reasoning model refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o.
****Anthropic (any other) refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.
Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator:
A model relaunched as Gemini 2 Pro with any small updates will count as a new model.
If a model is only renamed to Gemini 2 Pro without any updates, it will not count.
Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A new model created by a startup derived from a different company's model will not count.
If one of the listed companies pays or collaborates with a startup to create a new model for them, it will probably count, assuming conditions are met such as partial ownership.
Update 2025-01-30 (PST): - Publicly Released:
The model must be available to the broader public, not just a limited subset or for testing purposes.
Evidence of public release, such as official announcements or credible sources, is required. (AI summary of creator comment)
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@traders Market for next month is out: https://manifold.markets/Manifold/which-new-ai-models-will-be-release-tgtlZcCOEh
@AndrewMcKnight Uh, no, it's live in ChatGPT for all users. Check the "Reason" button if you're on the free tier.
@AlexanderMiller this system card refers to a model named “o3-mini-jan31-release” 😂

@summer_of_bliss Guess who accidentally tapped o3 instead of o3 mini! Gotta be more careful on mobile