How much will be donated through Manifold for Charity in total, by July 15?
How much will be donated through Manifold for Charity in total, by July 15?
12
1.1kṀ1553resolved Aug 22
100%74%
$8000 - $10k
0.4%Other
0.1%
$5000 - $6000
1.5%
$6000 - $8000
15%
$10k - $15k
4%
$15k - $20k
4%
$20k - $25k
0.6%
$25k - $35k
0.2%
$35k - $50k
0.2%
$50k+
A continuation of https://manifold.markets/ManifoldMarkets/total-donations-for-manifold-for-go. Let's forecast how much Manifold users will donate over the next ~30ish days!
The twist this time: thanks to the generosity of the FTX Future Fund, we're able to provide a donation matching pool, allocated via quadratic funding. This matching pool will grow in size proportional to the total amount donated, up to a maximum of $25k USD by the market close date.
All amounts are in USD. Only answers created by this account are eligible. Buckets are exclusive on the top end; eg exactly $6000 would resolve to the $6000-$8000 bucket, not $5000-$6000.
Jun 13, 9:05pm: Market resolves to the total amount raised on https://manifold.markets/charity; donation matching does not count for this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Numeric market version of this! https://manifold.markets/jack/how-much-will-be-donated-through-ma-5f9ea0df6668
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.