How much USD will be donated through Manifold for Good before June?
Whale WatchingManifold Investors
Basic
72
Ṁ452k
resolved Jun 1
100%77%
$5,000 - $10,000
0.2%Other
0.2%
$0 - $500
0.2%
$500 - $1,000
5%
$1,000 - $5,000
15%
$10,000 - $25,000
1.4%
$25,000 - $50,000
0.2%
$50,000 - $100,000
0.2%
$100,000 - $500,000
0.2%
$500,000 - $1 million
0.2%
$1+ million
0.2%
More than $0
0.2%
$50,000+
0.2%
$50000-$1,000,000,000,000
Manifold Markets has just introduced a new program which lets users donate their Manifold dollars directly to a charity of their choice ( https://manifold.markets/charity ). Through the month of May, every M$ 100 users contribute turns into $1 USD sent to charity. This market will resolve to the total number of US dollars that users end up donating through this program.
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ok I swear that last 3K was after the mkt closed
Oh wow 11:58. 1 min b4
@EnopoletusHarding :)
Lost a bunch of mana from not believing the insider traders.
Same, though TBF even given insider traders I think it was correct to bid $500-$1000 up to ***3%***, "people get a cold and miss the deadline by a few hours" is more than 3% likely unless there were a **lot** of people planning to donate a ton at the last minute.
@JiSK the Q is does that belief extend to the >$5,000 and also the >$10,000 outcome that got bid up today. Especially since there was just a massive sale on the latter in the last hour.
I wonder how many donating peeps are aware that the donating thing will continue after may?
I do write this, having skin in the game at 5-10k
@Angela it says "before June" in the specification, so I was assuming this market would be based on what's there at midnight on May 31st.
@StephenMalina what I meant was that donations are still possible after may (though they don’t count toward this market), so there’s no “this is your last chance to send your dollars to a good cause” situation.
@Angela oh I see. I hope that happens as someone with skin in the game on the other outcomes...
@StephenMalina sorry! Ah, just wanted to clarify further what I meant, lest I mislead someone; the charity page says that “in the month of may, you can donate….”, which might give the impression that you can only convert manna—>moneys this month. but in the discord I think it was said that the charity page would remain active afterwards. Hence, my first statement was wondering aloud, whether anyone was donating their manna (or betting) with the impression that May is the only month they’d be allowed to convert their earnings to charity donations.
@ManifoldMarkets 😮
$1000 were just broken. I want to short $500-$1000!
$798 on the 28th
It's possible this will follow the classic Kickstarter pattern of ">40% in the first 48 hours, >40% in the last 48 hours, the rest of the time slowly trickling in", but I really doubt it.
$559 on the 26th
If you want to troll the Manifold team, bet “More than $0”, and force them to come to terms with what happens when you allow overlapping free answers from the general public.
@Kronopath We already have overlapping answers from the main team - exactly $1000 etc. so I don't think this is an *extra* problem
With less than 100 added in the last 16 days, this seems like the obvious outcome. Perhaps people are expecting manipulation at the end?
$548 on the 24th.
Parimutuels that end trading so close to resolution suck. Come trade the binary market yall! https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
I made a binary market for this. Come trade on it! https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
$468 in 8 days, it's clearly not growing linearly.
$100 in 5 days, so if we extrapolate linearly...

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