How much USD will be donated through Manifold for Good before June?
Resolved
Manifold Markets has just introduced a new program which lets users donate their Manifold dollars directly to a charity of their choice ( https://manifold.markets/charity ). Through the month of May, every M$ 100 users contribute turns into $1 USD sent to charity. This market will resolve to the total number of US dollars that users end up donating through this program.
$5,000 - $10,000
Chosen
79%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$10,000 - $25,000
15%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$1,000 - $5,000
5%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$25,000 - $50,000
1.4%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$500 - $1,000
0.2%
JoelBecker avatar
Joel Becker answered
$50,000+
0.0%
Undox avatar
Undox answered
$50000-$1,000,000,000,000
0.0%
Kronopath avatar
Kronopath answered
More than $0
0.0%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$1+ million
0.0%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$500,000 - $1 million
0.0%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$100,000 - $500,000
0.0%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$50,000 - $100,000
0.0%
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$0 - $500
0.0%

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1
Unknown user avatar
Joel Becker
M$32,563
2
Unknown user avatar
1
M$285
3
Unknown user avatar
Adam
M$157
4
Unknown user avatar
Drew Spartz
M$66
5
Unknown user avatar
Marshall Polaris
M$43

💸 Best bet

JoelBecker avatar
Joel Becker sold M$35,678 of $10,000 - $25,000 at 0.0%4 months ago
Joel Becker made M$5,394!
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$5,000 - $10,000
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$10,000 - $25,000
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$1,000 - $5,000
GeorgeVii avatar
Parimutuels that end trading so close to resolution suck. Come trade the binary market yall! https://manifold.markets/GeorgeVii/will-2000-usd-be-donated-through-ma
0
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$25,000 - $50,000
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$500 - $1,000
Tetraspace avatar
$100 in 5 days, so if we extrapolate linearly...
0
Yev avatar
$468 in 8 days, it's clearly not growing linearly.
0
BoltonBailey avatar
$548 on the 24th.
0
BoltonBailey avatar
With less than 100 added in the last 16 days, this seems like the obvious outcome. Perhaps people are expecting manipulation at the end?
0
BoltonBailey avatar
$559 on the 26th
0
JiSK avatar
JiSK bought M$5004 months ago
It's possible this will follow the classic Kickstarter pattern of ">40% in the first 48 hours, >40% in the last 48 hours, the rest of the time slowly trickling in", but I really doubt it.
0
BoltonBailey avatar
$798 on the 28th
0
JoelBecker avatar
$50,000+
Undox avatar
$50000-$1,000,000,000,000
Kronopath avatar
More than $0
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$1+ million
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$500,000 - $1 million
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$100,000 - $500,000
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$50,000 - $100,000
ManifoldMarkets avatar
$0 - $500
General Comments
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Oh wow 11:58. 1 min b4
0
EnopoletusHarding avatar
ok I swear that last 3K was after the mkt closed
0
1 avatar
@StephenMalina sorry! Ah, just wanted to clarify further what I meant, lest I mislead someone; the charity page says that “in the month of may, you can donate….”, which might give the impression that you can only convert manna—>moneys this month. but in the discord I think it was said that the charity page would remain active afterwards. Hence, my first statement was wondering aloud, whether anyone was donating their manna (or betting) with the impression that May is the only month they’d be allowed to convert their earnings to charity donations.
0
StephenMalina avatar
@JiSK the Q is does that belief extend to the >$5,000 and also the >$10,000 outcome that got bid up today. Especially since there was just a massive sale on the latter in the last hour.
0
JiSK avatar
Same, though TBF even given insider traders I think it was correct to bid $500-$1000 up to ***3%***, "people get a cold and miss the deadline by a few hours" is more than 3% likely unless there were a **lot** of people planning to donate a ton at the last minute.
0
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Lost a bunch of mana from not believing the insider traders.
0
StephenMalina avatar
@Angela oh I see. I hope that happens as someone with skin in the game on the other outcomes...
0
1 avatar
@StephenMalina what I meant was that donations are still possible after may (though they don’t count toward this market), so there’s no “this is your last chance to send your dollars to a good cause” situation.
0
StephenMalina avatar
@Angela it says "before June" in the specification, so I was assuming this market would be based on what's there at midnight on May 31st.
0
1 avatar
I do write this, having skin in the game at 5-10k
0
1 avatar
I wonder how many donating peeps are aware that the donating thing will continue after may?
0
Milli avatar
$1000 were just broken. I want to short $500-$1000!
0
JiSK avatar
@Kronopath We already have overlapping answers from the main team - exactly $1000 etc. so I don't think this is an *extra* problem
0
Kronopath avatar
If you want to troll the Manifold team, bet “More than $0”, and force them to come to terms with what happens when you allow overlapping free answers from the general public.
0