Eliezer Yudkowsky has been a noted proponent of prediction markets and active user on Manifold. We've invited him to come to Manifest; he's been ambivalent, specifically citing an uncertainty about his desire to travel during September. Will he decide to come, in the end?

Resolves to YES if Eliezer attends our conference (whether he speaks or not).

Caveat emptor: Eliezer is known to insider trade on markets about him...