This market will resolve identically to this one, on Polymarket:
Will Hamas agree to disarm by November 30?
Polymarket rules:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Polymarket clarification:
Per the rules, "this market will resolve to 'Yes' if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip" and "plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered". On July 30, 2026, Hamas agreed to the Board of Peace roadmap, which includes a commitment to disarm sequenced with Israeli commitments. As of the time of this clarification, Israel has not agreed to that roadmap. Absent agreement by all relevant parties, Hamas's commitment to disarm is contingent, does not constitute a formal policy announcement, and therefore does not qualify.
1,000