So, yeah... there's been concerns that the Houthis could have motive and capability to cut, destroy or otherwise sabotage internet cables in the Red Sea.

While the Houthis do have an ally in Iran, that could give them the resources needed for such an action, there are also those who are calling this a bluff.

The question is:

Is it? Will they do it?

Furthermore, will they do it this year? Are they bluffing or is this a case where people are falling for optimism bias believing everything will be fine?

Resolves YES if:

• The Houthis manage to sabotage a submarine communications cable within the year. This will likely be reported by multiple sources and affect Internet traffic.

Resolves NO if:

• The next year (2025) comes around and no Houthi sabotage has been attempted and managed to succeed.

Resolves N/A if:

• Most submarine communication cables suffer some critical failure for some other reason this year (meteor impact?, world war?, aliens?!)

Considering this is my second question on Manifold, there could be more topics I could add to the question and the resolution criteria could still be ambiguous, so please comment regarding any suggestions or clarifications.