Will more people die on Western Australian roads in 2023 than 2022?
13
178
แน€230
resolved Jan 3
Resolved
NO

Source: https://www.wa.gov.au/organisation/road-safety-commission/road-fatalities-year-date or similar. As a result, only deaths considered by the government as road deaths will be counted.

If it's equal, will resolve to no.

May not resolve until the end of February as deaths within 30 days qualify. (I will only delay resolution if the numbers are very close together)

May not resolve to yes immediately upon the number exceeding the previous year's total as sometimes deaths are reclassified later (as certain types of deaths on the road aren't included in the official statistics). Again, if the numbers aren't close together, then it will resolve appropriately.

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predicted NO

2023: 157, 2022: 175. I don't think there's any realistic chance of enough deaths being reclassified, so I am going to resolve this now.

predicted NO

Official statistics aren't being update until the 2nd of January. So I will resolve this in about 24 hours.

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Just because this is a little bit hard to see in the link above, the total number of people who died on the road in 2022 is 175. As of writing this post, the current total for 2023 is 138.

This means that we'll have to average about one death a day to exceed the previous years total. This is not impossible - a single crash might result in a dozen deaths if it involves a bus - but it's much more unlikely than I'd initially thought.

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