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MANIFOLD
Who will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical)
9
Ṁ215Ṁ1k
resolved Jan 1
100%97%
Fabiano Caruana
0.6%
Hikaru Nakamura
2%Other

Based on official FIDE classical ratings, not live.

If two players pass the threshold at the same update, will resolve based on who passed the threshold in live ratings first. If there is still a tie, then it will resolve based on which tied player has the higher rating.

Can resolve as Magnus Carlsen in the event that he dips below 2800 in the official (non live) ratings and then passes it again in a later month.

Resolution date will be extended as needed.

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Caruana is at 2804 live at the end of Sinquefield. According to 2700chess.com, he doesn't have any standard events scheduled for December. Assuming he doesn't add an event, this will resolve to Fabi once the January 2024 list comes out.

December 2023 has Fabi at 2794 so no resolution this month either.

Fabi has crossed 2800 live, so if he remains 2800 when FIDE updates its official monthly rankings, it will resolve as him in the event of a tie.

@Mad Since the grand swiss goes into next month, I'm pretty sure none of the games are included until the following rating list. Not sure if the sinquefeld cup will be included in that list as well.

@DanielTilkin looks like he just dropped back under 2800 again anyway?

@Mad Yeah, every draw against someone other than Magnus costs him rating.

Does this still count for the tiebreak off multiple people cross on the same rating list? Or is the intent first to cross 2800 and stay there?

@DanielTilkin intent is to cross and stay

Note that November 2023 rankings are published and Fabi's 2795 so doesn't resolve this month