Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
Manifold makes a vegan cake: ingredients proportioned as below.
131
resolved Jul 4
Butter (vegan)
Sugar
Vegan egg replacement (applesauce)
Flour
Milk (oat)
Baking powder
Vanilla extract
I will actually make the resulting cake at market close.
Note that my cake is slightly different from the tumblr cake because it will be vegan. I have chosen nearest vegan equivalents for the items in the list.
Further information:
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/vanilla-extract
Ingredients will be proportioned by weight and cooked to the best my ability. I do know how to bake pretty well.
Depending on the proportions of the final ingredients, I may choose to make a single cupcake.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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