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MANIFOLD
Will any major US airlines stop charging for checked bag before 2030?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ45
2029
54%
chance

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "YES" if any of the major US airlines (defined as American, Delta, United, Southwest, Alaska, JetBlue, Spirit, or Frontier) officially announce and implement a policy that eliminates fees for at least one checked bag for standard economy class passengers on domestic flights within the United States.

The policy change must be applicable to general passengers and not solely contingent on membership in a loyalty program, the use of a specific credit card, or active military status. If an airline implements such a policy before January 1, 2030, at 11:59 PM ET, this market resolves "YES." Otherwise, it resolves "NO."

Resolution will be based on official announcements from the airlines or reports from major news outlets (e.g., AP, Reuters, Wall Street Journal) confirming the implementation of a zero-fee policy for the first checked bag.

Market context
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