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MANIFOLD
Which tennis player will announce their retirement first?
7
Ṁ500Ṁ560
2027
25%
Other
16%
Venus Williams
10%
Marin Cilic
10%
Matteo Berrettini
10%
Novak Djokovic
7%
No one by close date
7%
Adrian Mannarino
6%
Elina Svitolina
5%
Holger Rune
3%
Jessica Pegula
1.8%
Carlos Alcaraz

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the player among the listed options who first officially announces their retirement from professional tennis.

  • First Announcement: Resolution is determined by the timestamp (converted to UTC) of the player's first public, official announcement, not by the effective date of retirement. This includes statements posted on their verified social media accounts, official press conferences, or direct interviews with major press outlets. The announcement must be made after the creation of this market.

  • Scope of Retirement: The announcement must represent retirement from all professional tour-level tennis (ATP/WTA). Retiring from singles while continuing to play doubles (or vice versa) does not count as a complete retirement unless they clarify they are retiring from professional play entirely.

  • Adding names: traders can add new options. To be eligible, a player must have achieved a career-high singles world ranking of No. 20 or better. I will N/A names added after an announcement has been made.

  • Sources: Verification will be based on major sports news outlets (e.g., ESPN, tennis.com), official ATP/WTA announcements, or the International Tennis Integrity Agency (ITIA) Retired Players List.

Market context
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Would love to get a little more action on this