Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the first tropical storm (or stronger system) to be officially designated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) makes landfall in any location during the current Atlantic hurricane season. It resolves to NO otherwise.
Landfall is defined as the center of the storm's eye moving over land. The official designation, tracking, and landfall confirmation by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will serve as the sole source of truth.
Background
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. Tropical cyclones are classified as tropical storms when they exhibit a cyclonic circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39–73 mph. Landfall criteria depend on the specific storm's path as recorded in the NHC's post-season archive and active storm reports.
This description was generated by AI.
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@MachiNi As far as I can tell the official center (per the previous intermediate advisory) is technically over land already ... but they waited to now in the discussion to say so because of the diffuse nature of the storm...
I hate this type of market... lol
LOCATION...28.9N 95.7Whttps://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al01/al012026.public_a.006.shtml
Anyway in the latest full advisory discussion they say explicitly the center is over land (or at least appears to have been) ... so I believe this can fairly resolve YES now despite them not using the word "landfall." Its been over land over the last two advisories so I think thats fair regardless.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/al01/al012026.discus.007.shtml
Tropical Storm Arthur Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012026
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026
The center of Arthur appears to have moved inland over Matagorda
County, Texas, early this afternoon based on visible satellite
images and surface observations. However, the circulation center has
become more diffuse and less defined over the past couple hours,
making it difficult to track with much confidence.