Will Tesla report automotive gross profit margins lower than 19.5% in any fiscal year by 2028?
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resolved Jan 25
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YES

If Tesla stops reporting this metric, changes the accounting standard materially, Tesla goes private or any other unpredicted thing happens, this market will be resolved as N/A!

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If my math is correct, it was a 19.45% automotive gross margin in FY23

@MP I got the same

@TeddyWeverka this market includes regulatory credits

predicted YES

@MP from the same article, including regulatory credits : "Tesla's gross profit margin slid to 17.9%, down 719 basis points."

predicted YES

"Tesla's gross margin dropped to 17.9% in the quarter ended September, compared with 25.1% a year earlier, when it had yet to start cutting prices. In the second quarter, Tesla had posted a gross margin of 18.2%." https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-reports-lower-third-quarter-margin-2023-10-18/#:~:text=Tesla%27s%20gross%20margin%20dropped%20to,a%20gross%20margin%20of%2018.2%25.

@TeddyWeverka just g highlighting only Full year numbers count

Effect of that 18.69% margin is to reduce the year to date from 20.12 for the first half to 19.66% for the first 3 quarters a drop of .46%. Only need a drop of .17% to be under 19.5%

Automotive gross margin for Q3'23: 18.7%

The reason why I do not think that TESLA will have a profit margin of less than 19.5% is because if we look at historical data, those numbers have not been replicated even as far as 2017. Furthermore, their expenditure and profit margins are growing steadily at a rate of around 4% YoY. Furthermore, if we look at it through a macro lense, buyers of EV and TESLA have been given huge tax breaks by the US government in their efforts to become carbon neutral. Therefore, unless there is a drastic change in market, I do not see how it will be a drop of more than 3-5%.

predicted NO

@DanielMateoViteri they literally printed 19.2% last q

Tesla just printed a 19.2% gross margin for 2Q'23, and now the LTM automotive gross margin stands at 23.4% from 30.6% a year ago.

Just printed a 21% automotive gross margin for the 1Q'23

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