🏅 Top traders

Color me surprised

So sad I lost in my third trading attempt for just 20bps.

Called it. Musk is getting more pop right now but longtime articleheads, the type to be subscribed to a podcast like this, are more likely to have a long-held loathing and fear of Thiel.

@ForrestTaylor seems kinda cheap to write "called it" and to not have made significant profits.

@Tassilo i made 41 out of a 15 investment, that may not be significant to you but it is to me. It is kinda cheap in that I'm kinda poor

@ForrestTaylor Being poor is valid, but given that you can't feed yourself with Manifold coins, you might as well gamble them away optimally: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting/

@Tassilo Do note that mana can be sold and exchanged for items of value, so it does have some real value itself.

@IsaacKing you mean the donations? I'd argue that is even more reason to invest using kelly, so the M$ can go to the most epistemically virtuous more quickly.

@ForrestTaylor neglecting worse odds when putting in large Funds. If you thought this 50% likely, you should have invested ~30% of your bakroll at 85%. Of course this only applies to odds that you have after some reflection on why you should outperform the market.

@Tassilo Mana can also be sold to other users for real money.

@Tassilo Thank you, I have been meaning to look up the Kelly criteria after they mentioned it in breaking bad.

I also didn't want to put everything on this market because I'm permabanned from Twitter, so, while other bettors have the ability to see how betting is going I do not, which puts me at a disadvantage regardless of my confidence

*how the poll is going

@Tassilo Vigorously disagree. As donations is the only way out for mana, it doesn't matter if you bet them wisely, as all Mana will ultimately be donated.

@MP But the owner of the mana gets to choose how it's donated. Someone who donates their mana to The Trevor Project probably wouldn't want that mana going to CSPI instead.

Also, some mana gets lost to platform fees, or trapped in an inactive account indefinitely.

@Tassilo So, I'm reading through this and I'm not sure how to convert Manifold odds into betting odds. So, for example, if I'm seeing a market which I think is 99% likely to resolve Yes, but is at 95%, and there's another market which I think should be at 95% but is at 89%, which one should I put more of my bankroll into?

@ForrestTaylor Depends on when they resolve and how much your value of mana decreases over time.

@IsaacKing Same day.

@ForrestTaylor someone is working on a tool I think. On the same day you can use this Tool I made: https://github.com/sonofhypnos/PlotKelly/blob/main/README.mdhttps://github.com/sonofhypnos/PlotKelly .Should work on Linux and Mac.

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@MP I think this can resolve now?

@IsaacKing Definitely close, but I think those a more mainstream hate for musk

@DesTiny counterpoint: "tech won't save us" is not People magazine.

@Adam Yeah it is a more specific community, I still think Elon will lead

@DesTiny Sure, but 1500 responses is a large enough sample that we know the final result is going to be around the same split.

@IsaacKing not necessarily; one would expect the hardest-core users to disproportionately vote first, so there's an argument there in favor of "it will trend towards musk as time goes on". Alternatively, there's a real possibility of "musk fanboys find out about the poll and brigade it"; exciting uncertain stuff, both ways!

anyway, as usual, this is one of those "whoever wins, we all lose" situations 😂