Will Musk win Tech Won't Save Us' worst person in tech competition?
67
56
1.4k
resolved Dec 19
Resolved
NO

https://twitter.com/techwontsaveus/status/1603380714879287299?t=nR62jH_g1XaHoGRTvlz5uA&s=19

If Musk wins the competition, the market settles to YES.

I'll bet.

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predicted YES

Color me surprised

predicted YES

So sad I lost in my third trading attempt for just 20bps.

predicted NO

Called it. Musk is getting more pop right now but longtime articleheads, the type to be subscribed to a podcast like this, are more likely to have a long-held loathing and fear of Thiel.

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor seems kinda cheap to write "called it" and to not have made significant profits.

predicted NO

@Tassilo i made 41 out of a 15 investment, that may not be significant to you but it is to me. It is kinda cheap in that I'm kinda poor

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor Being poor is valid, but given that you can't feed yourself with Manifold coins, you might as well gamble them away optimally: https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/betting-strategy/how-to-use-kelly-criterion-for-betting/

predicted NO

@Tassilo Do note that mana can be sold and exchanged for items of value, so it does have some real value itself.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing you mean the donations? I'd argue that is even more reason to invest using kelly, so the M$ can go to the most epistemically virtuous more quickly.

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor neglecting worse odds when putting in large Funds. If you thought this 50% likely, you should have invested ~30% of your bakroll at 85%. Of course this only applies to odds that you have after some reflection on why you should outperform the market.

predicted NO

@Tassilo Mana can also be sold to other users for real money.

predicted NO

@Tassilo Thank you, I have been meaning to look up the Kelly criteria after they mentioned it in breaking bad.

I also didn't want to put everything on this market because I'm permabanned from Twitter, so, while other bettors have the ability to see how betting is going I do not, which puts me at a disadvantage regardless of my confidence

predicted NO

*how the poll is going

predicted YES

@Tassilo Vigorously disagree. As donations is the only way out for mana, it doesn't matter if you bet them wisely, as all Mana will ultimately be donated.

predicted NO

@MP But the owner of the mana gets to choose how it's donated. Someone who donates their mana to The Trevor Project probably wouldn't want that mana going to CSPI instead.

Also, some mana gets lost to platform fees, or trapped in an inactive account indefinitely.

predicted NO

@Tassilo So, I'm reading through this and I'm not sure how to convert Manifold odds into betting odds. So, for example, if I'm seeing a market which I think is 99% likely to resolve Yes, but is at 95%, and there's another market which I think should be at 95% but is at 89%, which one should I put more of my bankroll into?

predicted NO

@ForrestTaylor Depends on when they resolve and how much your value of mana decreases over time.

predicted NO

@IsaacKing Same day.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@MP I think this can resolve now?

bought Ṁ0 of NO
bought Ṁ456 of NO
bought Ṁ100 of YES

@IsaacKing Definitely close, but I think those a more mainstream hate for musk

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@DesTiny counterpoint: "tech won't save us" is not People magazine.

predicted YES

@Adam Yeah it is a more specific community, I still think Elon will lead

predicted NO

@DesTiny Sure, but 1500 responses is a large enough sample that we know the final result is going to be around the same split.

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@IsaacKing not necessarily; one would expect the hardest-core users to disproportionately vote first, so there's an argument there in favor of "it will trend towards musk as time goes on". Alternatively, there's a real possibility of "musk fanboys find out about the poll and brigade it"; exciting uncertain stuff, both ways!

predicted NO

anyway, as usual, this is one of those "whoever wins, we all lose" situations 😂

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