If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all.
Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.
After all the math is set and done, I'll calculate the least number of voters in the states that if they were to change, would give the election to the runner-up (or at least, make a tie). I plan to eventually calculate all the baserates for this for previous elections.
I won't bet on this market. I'll rely on the mainstream media and the Wikipedia to adjudicate this market. In case of recounts, this market will consider the official recount.
Other election markets:
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