The United States has a recent history of extremely close presidential elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 80,000 votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Washington Post).
In 2000, George Bush famously won against Al Gore by only a few hundred votes in the state of Florida.
This question resolves YES if 200,000 votes or less (i.e. the total vote difference between the top two candidates) distributed over any number of states/districts, would have made the difference between one presidential candidate or the other winning by electors to the Electoral College.
See also:
1,000
3.00Moving the close time to the "safe harbor" date of 11 Dec. See this post on the 100k version of this question for rationale and current vote tallies.
Simple statement: US Presidential elections haven't been particularly close in recent years.
Mental gymnastics: if you take X votes from tipping-point battleground swing states (not counting ME-2 because that's "RCV"), then subtract the demographic coefficient of likely voters... [three more pages of increasingly bizarre caveats and conditions] ... then you'll see that US elections are really close! Nobody does close elections better!!!