This market will resolve to YES if DWAC successfully merges with TMTG.
This market will resolve to NO if by Sep 6th 2023 DWAC didn't merge with TMTG.
This market will resolve to NO ahead of time if DWAC is disolved.
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The vote passed, one more year extension ...
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523214397/d508668d8k.htm
"The Special Meeting will now be held on September 5, 2023, at 10:00 a.m. Eastern Time"
They changed the date for the extension even further back. This should convince the rest of YES holders to bet it down to almost 0%.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523207492/d508117d8k.htm
They've engaged a new firm for audits:
On August 8, 2023, the Company engaged Adeptus Partners, LLC (“Adeptus”) as the Company’s independent public accounting firm to audit the Company’s consolidated financial statements for the fiscal years ended December 31, 2022 and 2021 and to review the Company’s quarterly consolidated financial statements beginning with the first quarter of the 2023 fiscal year.
ChatGPT summarizes useful points regarding dates:
The Second Amendment to the Agreement and Plan of Merger was entered into on August 9, 2023.
The Outside Date for the merger has been extended to December 31, 2023.
The Merger Agreement may be terminated by DWAC if certain conditions are not met by September 30, 2023.
The Merger Agreement may be terminated by TMTG under specific circumstances by September 30, 2023, or by October 13, 2023, depending on the condition.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523200592/d491229ddefa14a.htm
36 days until September 6. Increasing NO bet to question bankroll max.
DWAC finally settled the fraud charges with the SEC.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2023-135
It is now 48 days until September 6.
"DWAC agreed to a cease-and-desist order and to pay an $18 million penalty in the event it closes a merger transaction"
New proxy has date, August 17:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523187436/d505629ddef14a.htm
"The Company is proposing to amend its charter to extend the date by which the Company has to consummate an initial business combination up to four times, each by an additional three months, for an aggregate of 12 additional months (i.e. from September 8, 2023 up to September 8, 2024) or such earlier date as determined by the Board."
@parhizj are you saying that it will probably not be this year but next year for this merge?
They updated their proxy, but it still has no date:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312523186960/d505629dprer14a.htm
Increasing my NO bet.
DWAC has reached a preliminary settlement with the SEC, but it seems TMTG doesn't want to extend the merger: DWAC complains that TMTG has been delayed in deliverables and TMTG has not agreed to the settlement. There are 98 days left until Sept. 6 so it doesn't seem the merger will go through by the question date (DWAC still wants to extend). I interpret the favorable news of the preliminary SEC investigation agreement being outweighed by TMTG's response to the extension and the settlement agreement so I am increasing my NO bet.
"In connection with the preliminary proxy statement filed by the Company with the SEC on June 23, 2023 for the voting of the Company’s shareholders on the proposed extension of its liquidation date (the “Extension Preliminary Proxy”), the Company received an electronic mail from TMTG. TMTG notified the Company that it disagrees with the Company’s position under Section 8.1(b) of the Merger Agreement, namely that upon the approval of the Company’s shareholders to extend the Company’s liquidation date by an additional three months (for a total of 12 additional months, i.e., from September 8, 2023 up to September 8, 2024), the Company has the right to extend the Outside Date (as defined in the Merger Agreement, currently set as September 8, 2023) of the Merger Agreement by the same extension periods. Pursuant to its electronic mail, TMTG believes it is currently only bound under the Merger Agreement through September 8, 2023. Given the historical liquidation date extensions preceding TMTG’s acknowledgement that it was correspondingly bound through September 8, 2023 under the Merger Agreement, the Extension Preliminary Proxy seeking an extension structure consistent with such historical extensions and TMTG’s position that it is nonetheless only bound through September 8, 2023 (in addition to TMTG’s continued delay in providing various deliverables to the Company under the Merger Agreement required to consummate a business combination), DWAC expects to work with TMTG in good faith to address this disagreement in a manner that is in the best interest of its shareholders. As mentioned above, the Company remains very interested in the transaction with TMTG and is hopeful DWAC and TMTG can resolve this interpretative divergence."
https://www.ft.com/content/84ff4069-623d-41e2-99d2-08f3c0724c8d
Indicates the hurdle of the SEC investigation might soon be passed, but there are still other investigations going on as far as I know: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/15/trump-media-investigated-possible-money-laundering
@higherLEVELING There is the NASDAQ deadline of July 24. But there could be an update sooner in the form of: new DWAC filings or possibly federal indictments.
I am increasing my NO bet after spending a couple hours doing reading on the merger, company directors/employees, and various analysis on the web: Reading about some of the company's members I am not inspired with confidence (below), especially considering that they still haven't filed two SEC forms after all this time. NASDAQ has given them until July 24 to file a plan to avoid delisting (I don't know the status of whether any such plans have been submitted). Most relevant to this question, DWAC also has a filing for a (preliminary) proxy for an extension (to ~2024), which I interpret as a strong signal they will not merge before this question closes.
Some selected readings:
Eric Swider:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DWAC/comments/1239e37/its_a_week_since_eric_swider_took_the_helm_at/
https://www.ft.com/content/8769c114-c818-4572-87b4-4176d02b65d0
Eric Swider also knows Patrick Francis Orlando through the other sister company Benessere Capital Acquisition Corp (started liquidation ~2022).
https://news.yahoo.com/trumps-truth-social-slashes-staff-150100051.html
72 days until September 6, and with SEC and federal investigations still going on: I am betting NO.
There was a letter to request for an investigation into the SEC review (as it has gone on for a long time) but that has led nowhere as far as I can tell (the letter from TMTG: https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2023-02/23.02.27%20TMTG%20to%20Congress%20FINAL%20w%20Attachments.pdf)
@BTE DWAC owners will likely extend the deadline by paying for it themselves.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312522238865/d392546ddefa14a.htm