If by the end of 2025, AI development is still going strong (new models pushing benchmarks, hype in financial markets, new breakthroughs, etc) this market resolves to NO.

If AI development has stalled by then, then I'll consider whether it was legal protections to people's intelectual property what stalled, rather other stuff. I'll rely on what pundits say (Ben Thompson, Ben Evans, Yan Le Cunn, Eliezer...) as also the wording of the mainstream financial press (WSJ, FT, Bloomberg). If a outlet becomes interested (like the NYT) they won't count.

If for example, the current lawsuit of NYT v. openai makes that it's too expensive to develop AI models because of royalties, this market would resolve to YES.

I won't bet.