Will the legality of AI training on copyrighted works be settled by, and in favor of, the American Copyright Lobby, before 2026?
21
1kṀ843
2026
25%
chance

Broadly speaking, the "American Copyright Lobby" includes (but is not limited to) to the following organizations, and their surrogates:

  • Motion Picture Association of America (MPAA)

  • Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA)

  • Association of American Publishers (AAP)

  • Entertainment Software Association (ESA)

  • Copyright Alliance

  • American Intellectual Property Law Association (AIPLA)

  • Intellectual Property Owners Association (IPO)

  • Walt Disney Corporation

This market resolves YES if the following conditions come to pass before the resolution date:

  • A major law or court ruling with the force of law, on either the state or federal level, is passed/ruled, that:

  • Establishes/clarifies that the mere act of training an AI on copyrighted works (doesn't matter what kind -- images, video, text, music, etc) constitutes copyright infringement under certain conditions, in such a way:

  • That further establishes that the training practices used in any one of already-existing major AI projects, such as Stable Diffusion, GPT(X), Dall-E, Riffusion, or reasonable equivalents, would constitute copyright infringement under the new legal framework. (This is wholly apart from generating content with these tools, which this market is entirely agnostic about). AND FURTHER:

  • That any of the above "American Copyright Lobby" organizations or their surrogates participate prominently in the funding, lobbying, testifying, filing of Amicus Briefs, etc, of said law/ruling, AND:

  • That general public consensus, as judged in my sole opinion, seems to be that the American Copyright Lobby got most of what they wanted out of the law/ruling.

This is entirely independent and agnostic of whether, simultaneously and in parallel, said law/ruling also happens to achieve the goals of any other group -- such as independent working class artists and performers, for instance. It's solely judged based on whether the copyright lobby makes its presence prominently felt, and the law/ruling is crafted in a way that mostly fulfills their wishes, and it actually becomes the law of the land (or at least a state).

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