
Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024?
Will Adobe's senior management team say that generative AI is a headwind to Adobe by Sep 2024?
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1kṀ4463resolved Oct 1
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If Adobe senior management team, in a call to the market (press releases, earnings calls, investors days...) says that generative AI is affecting their business in a bad way (ultimately in a significance that will make Adobe make meaningfully less money selling Creative Cloud), this market resolves to YES.
I'll rely on my judgment, specialized financial media, and Wall Street sellside to adjudicate.
I won't bet on this market.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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