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I'm currently planning to resolve this yes based the following reasoning

• sadly, the most recent data we have is from July 2024.

• Also, the numbers seem a bit inconsistent to me: They say the total n for July 2024 is 1491, but the have 555 C-level execs, 371 senior managers, and 264 mid-level managers which only adds up to 1190.

• I'm inferring that the rest is just neither C-level, nor senior nor mid-level. So I'm taking the actual n to be 1190

• I asked Claude about it who suggested that mid-level are likely not global managers: "Looking at this chart, "midlevel managers" would not typically be considered "global managers." These appear to be distinct organizational levels: Midlevel managers are usually department heads, team leads, or regional managers who oversee specific functions or geographic areas within a company
  Global managers would typically be senior executives (likely falling under the "C-level executives" or "Senior managers" categories in this chart) who have responsibility for worldwide operations, strategy, and coordination across multiple countries/regions".

• If we take out mid-level, then the new n is 926

• If we include mid-level, then the mean is (555 53 + 371 48 + 264 * 44) / 1190 = 49.44454

• If we exclude mid-level, then the mean is (555 53 + 371 48) / (555 + 371) = 50.99676

• I'm currently at >50% that mid-level shouldn't count, which would imply a mean > 50%. But I agree there is some ambiguity here.

• Overall, I see a clear trend in the data and I find it more likely that adoption would increase rather than decrease. So I think if they repeated the analysis in June 2025, I find it more likely than not that the numbers would be higher.

• Based on that, I find it more likely than not that the actual number is >50%.
  
  Please let us know if you disagree strongly and want to make your case

@mods @FUTURESEARCH I had a scour and found nothing to resolve this to "Yes". The latest McKinsey survey I can find showed<50%.

@vitamind Can you link to said survey? Quote relevant details? It's helpful if the mod team doesn't have to repeat your research!

@EvanDaniel see below (https://manifold.markets/FUTURESEARCH/will-50-of-global-managers-from-for#36kqgn57s74)

@EvanDaniel Or perhaps it resolves to "Yes":

See Exhibit: Respondents are much more likely now than in 2023 and in early 2024 to say they are using gen AI in this McKinsey report.

@EvanDaniel sorry for another ping - are you guys still planning to distribute prizes for this?

@vitamind I'm not sure what you mean, the market resolved? Could you clarify the question?

@EvanDaniel prizes for the Humans v Bots tournament?

@vitamind oh. I don't actually know who to talk to about that. I'd recommend asking on the discord. Or maybe the mods ping?

@EvanDaniel will do, thanks.

@FUTURESEARCH this is not closed yet, fyi. Or is is 2025 not a typo?

@vitamind @FUTURESEARCH

Exhibit 4 from McKinsey & Co's The state of AI in early 2024: Gen AI adoption spikes and starts to generate value resolves this Yes I believe.

For example:

• C-level execs ("Regularly use for work" + "Regularly use for work and outside of work" + "Regularly use outside of work"):

  • 2023. (13 + 16 + 8) = 35%

  • 2024. (15 + 26 + 15) = 56%

cc: @FUTURESEARCH

@mods please resolve if you agree, thank you.

@vitamind the 15% using it outside work probably shouldn't count.

Edit: Ignore

@vitamind @FUTURESEARCH please resolve this

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 74%, market is 59%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 69%, market is 59%.

Buying YES shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 70%, market is 59%.

Should this market refer to the end of 2024, if it's a 2024 tournament?

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 45%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 54%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 50%, market is 60%.

Buying NO shares for 5 MANA. My probability is 40%, market is 60%.