If a man or woman like John McCain wins the GOP primaries, this market resolves to YES. I will use a set of evidences, including whether people in the GOP call the candidate a RINO to choose. Acknowledgement of climate change, a discourse not-based in bigotry would count.
Over time, we can discuss whether certain people are RINOs. Obviously neither Ron nor Donald are RINOs.
I won't bet.
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@VictorLi fyi im not a republican myself but i just wish for manifold to be more abt neutral forecasting
@MP maybe leave out the "a discourse not-based in bigotry would count" bit? it sounds like ur just throwing shade at the republicans. its probably a good idea to just resolve the market based on a solid metric like how often they vote with the republican consensus or whether or not they've been called RINOs by other republicans.