When will the Bank of Japan pivot?
World•Economics•Interest Rates•Asia•Japan
10
119
Ṁ610
2027
0.1%
H2 2023
99.6%
H1 2024
0.1%
H2 2024
0.1%
H1 2025
0.1%
H2 2025
0.1%
H1 2026
0.1%
H2 2026
0.1%
2027 or later

This market resolves to the period when the Bank of Japan one of the next 3 things happens

  • Ends yield curve control

  • Raise interest rates

  • Hikes the upper targer of Yield curve control to at least 1.5%

This market will resolve to 2027 or later on January 1st 2027 if not resolved by then.

I may bet on this market.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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9 Holders
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@MP resolution please

Can resolve @MP

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/19/bank-of-japan-raises-interest-rates-negative-scrapped-borrowing-costs

They just raised interest rates. This can resolve to H1 2024.

bought Ṁ300 of H2 2023 NO

No pivot at the last meeting of 2023:

https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/bank-of-japan-leaves-negative-rates-and-ycc-1-ceiling-rate-unchanged-20231219/

Bank of Japan leaves negative rates and YCC 1% ceiling rate unchanged

Bank of Japan announces their main policy planks remain in place untouched, as expected.

USD/JPY has jumped sharply higher.

  • Maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%

  • Maintains 10-year JGB yield target around 0%, with 1% upper reference rate kept unchanged

  • YCC decision unanimous

  • BOJ makes no change to forward guidance

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