Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if the USD/JPY exchange rate closes below 160 on March 31, 2026. The resolution will be determined using the official closing rate from a major financial data provider such as Trading Economics, Yahoo Finance, or the Federal Reserve's H.10 release. The market resolves NO if the rate is at or above 160 JPY/USD at market close on that date.

Background

As of January 20, 2026, USD/JPY traded at 158.02, placing the pair near the critical 160 level. Japanese authorities have cautioned against rapid, one-sided currency movements as the yen approached the key 160 level, and markets expect a high likelihood of direct intervention near 158–160.

The yen's weakness stems from structural factors. The Japanese yen's low interest rate, one of the lowest among major central banks globally, makes it difficult for the yen to regain ground against other currencies. The BOJ's interest rate is significantly lower than that of other major central banks: the United States (3.75%), Canada (2.25%), and the European Union (2.15%).

Considerations

Forecasts for end-2026 are mixed. Strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., BNP Paribas SA and other firms see the yen weakening to 160 per dollar or beyond by the end of 2026, with JPMorgan's most bearish forecast at 164. However, ING forecasts USDJPY probing the 155–160 area in 2026, and Japanese officials will likely increase verbal intervention above 155 and could intervene directly if USDJPY approaches 160.

The 2026 outlook points to a yen that begins the year relatively weak but with increasing potential for recovery if the BOJ begins implementing rate hikes. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced a snap general election on February 8, which could affect fiscal policy and currency dynamics in the first quarter.