Michael Lewis is a famous biographer who was in the Bahamas during November 2022 as FTX collapsed. He's writing a book about Sam.
This market resolves under four circumstances:
If the mainstream media reports that Sam and Caroline were romantically envolved after throwing Sam under the bus, this market resolves to YES
If Michael Lewis book is published and says they were involved romantically after Caroline throwing Sam under the bus, this market resolves to YES
If Michael Lewis book is published and doesn't say anything, this market resolves to NO
This market resolves to NO by Jan 1st 2027, but I can extend the deadline by 6 months if we have credible evidence the book will be published in H1 2027
As there might be doubts about what would mean to be romantically involved, I won't bet.
Dec 24, 12:07am: We will have evidence that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published? → Will we have evidence that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published?
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This market isn't clear enough either grammatically or logically.
Logical problem:
You say if the media reports [blah] then it's yes, but then you say if the book doesn't say anything then it's no. So if the book doesn't say anything about it but the media does say it happened, what happens? THIS IS A LOGICAL CONTRADICTION!
Grammatical problem:
The title is unclear, it would be better to write it as "Will we have evidence, by the date the SBF biography written by Michael Lewis is published, that SBF and Caroline became romantically involved after she handed him over to the feds?"
@RobinGreen This market has a moving ending date, that is the book publication. If the media reports before the publication of the book, even if the book doesn't mention that, the market nonetheless resolves to YES.
@MP Caroline says "You'd do the same" and he says "I know" then they promise to spend their last days together after they are released from jail in 2072