Conditional on the U.S. defaulting on its debt in 2023, will the S&P 500 drop at least 20% from its 2023 highs?
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Ṁ330resolved Jun 3
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If the United States federal governments defaults on its debt in 2023 (as defined by the WSJ), will the S&P 500 at any point in 2023 drop at least 20% from its 2023 highs in 2023?
If the U.S. government defaults in December 31st 2023 and the market drops 20% in January 2024, this market nonetheless resolves to NO. Hopefully this won't matter because the X day will happen during the summer.
If the US doesn't default, this market resolves to N/A. I won't bet.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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