Conditional on gas prices being "high" on October 2024, will a democrat win the U.S. 2024 presidential election?
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Nov 22
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I will consider the Gas price to be gasoline component of the CPI, seasonally adjusted
If the price is up more than 20% YoY, or 30% in the last 6 months, or 40% in the last 3 months, I will consider the Gas price to be high.
I will resolve to the political affiliation of whoever ABC News calls to have won the 2024 presidential election.
I may bet on this market.
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Whether gas prices are high or not, the single biggest factor in the 2024 election will be whether Trump splits the republican vote by running as an independent - If he does, the democrats will very likely prevail, whereas if not it's less certain but I'd bet on the GOP, since incumbents do badly when discontent is high. I have no idea whether this split will happen.
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