Resolution Criteria

Resolve YES if Rebeca Grynspan receives strictly more “encourage” votes than any other candidate in the next informal United Nations Security Council straw poll for the selection of the next UN Secretary-General held after Ivonne Baki entered the race.

A tie for the highest number of “encourage” votes does not count as leading and will resolve NO.

All candidates participating in that straw poll will be considered, including Ivonne Baki if she is included in the poll.

The result will be determined based on reporting from Reuters, the Associated Press, or other highly reliable sources citing diplomats or officials familiar with the straw poll results.

The relevant straw poll is currently expected to take place on August 21, 2026. If it is postponed, the rescheduled next straw poll will be used, provided it takes place by August 24, 2026.

If no qualifying straw poll takes place by August 24, 2026, the market will resolve N/A.