Resolution Criteria
Resolve YES if Rebeca Grynspan receives strictly more “encourage” votes than any other candidate in the next informal United Nations Security Council straw poll for the selection of the next UN Secretary-General held after Ivonne Baki entered the race.
A tie for the highest number of “encourage” votes does not count as leading and will resolve NO.
All candidates participating in that straw poll will be considered, including Ivonne Baki if she is included in the poll.
The result will be determined based on reporting from Reuters, the Associated Press, or other highly reliable sources citing diplomats or officials familiar with the straw poll results.
The relevant straw poll is currently expected to take place on August 21, 2026. If it is postponed, the rescheduled next straw poll will be used, provided it takes place by August 24, 2026.
If no qualifying straw poll takes place by August 24, 2026, the market will resolve N/A.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ0 |
Update: Leaked results from today’s second UN Security Council straw poll indicate that Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett received 8 “Encourage” votes, while Rebeca Grynspan received 7, meaning Grynspan appears to have lost the lead.
However, the market will not be resolved yet. We are waiting for confirmation from an official or sufficiently reliable source, in line with the Resolution Criteria.
If these results are confirmed, the market will resolve NO.
Update: The second UN Security Council straw poll is scheduled to begin today at 10:00 AM New York time.
The market has not been resolved yet because, under the Resolution Criteria, resolution depends on the actual “encourage” vote totals from this straw poll. Detailed results are not officially published by the Security Council and may take some time to emerge through reliable reporting.
The market will be resolved as soon as sufficiently reliable results are available.