Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the Paris Assize Court finds Loïk Le Priol guilty of “assassinat” — premeditated murder — in connection with the killing of Federico Martín Aramburú.

It resolves NO if Le Priol is acquitted of the premeditated-murder charge or is convicted only of a lesser offense, such as non-premeditated homicide or another lesser related offense.

The length of any sentence does not affect resolution. This market concerns only whether the court ultimately convicts Le Priol of the charged offense of premeditated murder.

Resolution is based on the first-instance verdict in this trial, regardless of any subsequent appeal.

If the verdict is postponed, the market will remain unresolved until it is delivered.

If no first-instance verdict has been issued by October 31, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

The market is intentionally scheduled to close at least a day before the expected verdict, preserving a genuine forecasting window while reducing trading based on late courtroom signals or information already beginning to emerge.