This market will close on January 20, 2029, unless the criteria for NO are met before that point, in which case it will resolve NO. It is intended as a direct interpretation of the market title.

This market will resolve "NO" only if all the following criteria are met, and posted in a comment, or found with basic research, on a tariff by tariff basis:
1. The tariff is officially applied to goods exported from the UK to the US, as per publicly available trade or customs documentation.
2. The tariff did not exist before January 20, 2025, or, if it did, the new or altered tariff results in a higher simple percentage rate for the same class of goods.
3. If the tariff applies to a class of goods already subject to tariffs before January 20, 2025, the simple tariff percentage must have increased.
4. For the avoidance of including materially ineffective tariffs, the tariff must either:

• Be actively enforced for at least 1 month, or

• Not be withdrawn or exempted for UK exports within 1 month of its implementation.

5. All information required to determine the tariff's application, percentage rate, effective date, and affected goods must be publicly available and verifiable through credible sources (e.g., USITC, WTO, or official trade data).

This market will resolve NO if any tariff meeting the above criteria is applied to goods exported from the UK to the US during Trump's second term (January 20, 2025 – January 20, 2029). Otherwise, it will resolve YES.

This market will resolve N/A if it has not already resolved NO, if:
- Trump completes less than one year of his term, for any reason (e.g., resignation, impeachment, death, or other circumstances preventing him from serving).

Special conditions:
- If the United Kingdom ceases to exist as a distinct trading entity (e.g., integration into another political or trading bloc, such as full EU reintegration, resulting in UK-origin exports no longer being recognised separately by the US), any tariffs against that entity will count as tariffs against the UK.