Will the UK introduce mandatory conscription for any portion of its population before 2030?
Will the UK introduce mandatory conscription for any portion of its population before 2030?
19
1kṀ7722030
10%
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This resolves true if any policy of mandatory conscription, including to the reserves or mandatory training for civilians is introduced in the UK before 2030. Does not include past military service members, must be of the civilian population.
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I am betting on this market. I believe the resolution criteria is clear, but if there are any questions anyone has any concern over whatsoever, please let me know and I will write a response for what will happen here for posterity.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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