Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the London Bridge (the current structure spanning the River Thames between Borough High Street in Southwark and King William Street in the City of London) experiences a catastrophic structural failure resulting in partial or complete collapse at any point between now and January 17, 2031. Resolution will be determined by official reports from the City of London Corporation, Bridge House Estates, or UK government authorities confirming structural failure. The market resolves NO if the bridge remains standing and operational through January 17, 2031.

Background

The current London Bridge structure dates from the late 20th century. The City of London Corporation completed essential maintenance and waterproofing work in 2020, which included replacing 24 original bearings and the original protective waterproofing layer under the road surfacing. As of September 2025, there are no major works or closures scheduled for London Bridge. The Bridge House Trust has £216 million allocated for planned maintenance on its five bridges, including London Bridge.

Considerations

The nursery rhyme "London Bridge is Falling Down" refers to the medieval Old London Bridge, which was replaced in 1831 and later dismantled in the 1960s. The current bridge is a modern concrete structure with dedicated maintenance funding and no reported structural concerns.