(AI Generated Description)

### 📌 Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before the next UK general election, the UK Home Secretary publicly states their intention to defy or disregard a UK court ruling by proceeding with a deportation (or series of deportations) that a domestic UK court has found to be unlawful or impermissible.

The statement must meet the following conditions:

- It must come directly from the Home Secretary, either via:

- an official government channel, or

- a publicly reported statement in a credible news source (e.g. BBC, ITV, The Times, The Guardian, Reuters).

- It must make clear that the government intends to proceed with the deportation in spite of the court ruling — not just that they disagree with the judgment.

- The court being defied must be a UK court (e.g. High Court, Court of Appeal, Supreme Court). Defiance of rulings by the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) does not qualify unless a UK court ruling is also defied.

If no such statement is made by the deadline, the market will resolve to "No".

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### 🧠 Background

The UK government’s deportation policies — particularly regarding asylum seekers, illegal entrants, and foreign criminals — have become a central political battleground. While the previous Conservative government under Rishi Sunak sought to revive the Rwanda plan through legislative override, it often stopped short of open defiance of domestic courts.

With Labour now in government, pressure is mounting from both the public and political challengers like Reform UK to demonstrate decisive enforcement. The Home Secretary's stance on deportation policy — especially in the face of legal blockages — will be a key signal of whether the government is willing to prioritise executive authority over judicial obstruction.

This market captures the moment where ministerial will may come into direct conflict with the judiciary, and tests how far the UK government is willing to go to enforce removals, even if doing so challenges constitutional norms.

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### ⚠️ Considerations for Traders

- Focus on explicit defiance — not just political frustration or intention to “review” laws.

- Pay attention to fast-moving legal rulings on deportations, especially high-profile removals blocked by courts.

- Consider the political context: a surge in illegal crossings, a failed deportation flight, or polling pressure could force a rhetorical or policy shift.

• Update 2025-07-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the market to resolve to YES, the Home Secretary only needs to state their intention to proceed with a deportation in defiance of a court ruling. The deportation does not actually need to happen.