Will Noam Chomsky die in the next 30 days? (5/14/24)
37
112
662
May 15
14%
chance

Noam Chomsky is 95 and has not been speaking publicly as of late.

If Chomsky passes away between (inclusive) 4/14/24 and 5/14/24 this will resolve YES. If not It will resolve NO.

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bought Ṁ50 NO

I didn't even know he was sick.

@DonutThrow I don't know if he is or not, I'm just going to keep rolling this bet till it happens. Curios about the expected odds of death each month and how they change over time, their might be a better question format for what I am doing.

@LukeAlvarez going forward I'd rephrase to "will Noam chomsky survive". less morbid for folks, even though it's asking the same question, and I know there's been a push to avoid the ickyness of death markets around here

@Stralor it's not just the ickyness, it's also the incentives.