Background

María Corina Machado is a prominent Venezuelan opposition leader, known for her advocacy of democracy and human rights in Venezuela and her strong opposition to the government of Nicolás Maduro. Machado has been nominated for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize by various groups.

Fewer than 24 hours prior to the announcement of the Prize, she surged on the prediction markets

The question is Why?

This market will resolve to the answer option that—at market close, 31 Dec 2025—is most convincingly substantiated by credible, publicly available evidence as the primary reason for the significant surge in María Corina Machado's odds in Nobel Peace Prize prediction markets.

Only one option can resolve "Yes." If no single option is overwhelmingly supported by evidence as the primary cause, the market will resolve to "Unclear."

• Insider trading (leaked information from Nobel Committee): Resolves "Yes" if a reputable news organization (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, major international newspapers with strong journalistic standards) reports a confirmed leak of information from the Nobel Committee that directly preceded and influenced a notable surge in her prediction market odds.

• Market manipulation scheme (for-profit motives): Resolves "Yes" if a credible financial regulatory body (e.g., CFTC, SEC, or equivalent international bodies) or a credible journalism outlet publishes findings that a coordinated scheme, primarily driven by financial gain, significantly manipulated her prediction market odds.

• Activism to raise profile of her and her cause: Resolves "Yes" if reputable news analyses point to advocacy efforts being the motivating factor.

Given the high likelihood of a judgment call being needed to resolve, I will not bet on this market.